A new TD survey shows Canadians remain deeply divided about where mortgage rates are headed, with uncertainty around tariffs and economic pressures adding more layers of confusion and complexity for homebuyers.
The survey, conducted by The Harris Poll for TD, highlights how Canadians are navigating one of the most unpredictable mortgage markets in years. While 32% expect rates to climb, 27% anticipate cuts and 29% think rates will hold steady, leaving no clear consensus on the path ahead.
This uncertainty is creating added pressure for Canadians trying to make long-term financial decisions. The survey also shows that many borrowers are struggling with unexpected costs, limited affordability and the impact of tariffs on their borrowing capacity — which all underlines the importance of professional advice in today’s market.
Canadians divided on rate expectations
Despite the Bank of Canada holding rates steady in recent months, Canadians remain split on what’s next. Roughly a third believe rates are set to rise, while nearly as many are bracing for cuts. This lack of consensus illustrates the challenge for those renewing or signing a new mortgage, since locking in a rate today could mean paying more — or missing out on potential savings down the line.
“Canadians are thinking carefully about how best to approach their mortgage,” said Patrick Smith, VP of Real Estate Secured Lending at TD, in a statement. “Expert advice can help bring clarity to that complexity, so Canadians can make confident, informed choices aligned with their needs and long-term goals.”
Tariffs weigh on mortgage affordability
Economic pressures beyond interest rates are also shaping mortgage decisions. According to the TD poll, nearly one in three Canadians (29%) say tariffs have directly influenced their mortgage strategy.
The survey also found:
- 31% say tariffs have impacted their borrowing capacity
- 28% have reconsidered taking out a mortgage due to tariffs
- 28% say tariffs have influenced which lender they choose
These findings show that trade and pricing pressures are filtering down into household-level financial planning, leaving many Canadians reassessing not just when to buy a home, but how much home they can truly afford.
And while recent home sales data shows that affordability has improved slightly in major markets, a large number of potential buyers are still hesitant, preferring to wait and see how these wider economic factors will play out.
“A key way to mitigate the impact of trade uncertainty is to promote growth in the domestic economy,” said Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, in a recent market update. “The housing sector can be a catalyst for growth, with most spin-off expenditures accruing to regional economies. Further interest rate cuts would spur home sales and see more spin-off expenditures, positively impacting the economy and job growth.”
Knowledge gaps and the role of advice
Even with strong general awareness of the mortgage process, many Canadians are still facing surprises. According to the TD survey, 23% encountered unexpected costs during their mortgage journey, and more than a quarter (27%) admitted they don’t know how to improve affordability.
At the same time, there is a strong appetite for trusted guidance: 88% of Canadians say having access to expert advice is important when making mortgage decisions. Whether buying a first home, refinancing, or renewing, personalized advice can help borrowers avoid costly mistakes and navigate shifting market conditions.
For consumers, the key takeaway is that for now, uncertainty is the norm in the current housing market. With no obvious direction on rates, and external pressures like tariffs squeezing affordability, it’s becoming harder for borrowers to plan confidently on their own.
That makes it all the more important to seek tailored advice before committing to a mortgage. Canadians weighing their options should factor in not only current affordability, but also their tolerance for risk if conditions shift again.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.