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Author: Vawn Himmelsbach

  • ‘Something worse than a recession’: Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says Trump’s economic agenda could be catapulting the US toward a world order ‘very much like the 1930s’

    ‘Something worse than a recession’: Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says Trump’s economic agenda could be catapulting the US toward a world order ‘very much like the 1930s’

    The founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, is voicing concern that President Donald Trump’s economic agenda could lead to “something worse than a recession.”

    “Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” billionaire investor Ray Dalio told NBC’s Meet the Press. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

    A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. A much more “profound” change would be a breakdown of the current monetary order. (It’s worth pointing out that Dalio correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis.)

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    What’s worse than a recession?

    Trump has triggered global economic chaos with his on-again, off-again tariffs, most recently declaring a 90-day pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs — except for China.

    In that case, tariffs have increased to 145%. With markets in turmoil and consumer confidence plummeting, more economists believe a recession is likely.

    But Dalio believes Americans could be facing more than a recession. Tariffs, combined with a high level of debt and a rising superpower challenging the existing superpower, could lead to “profound changes” in the world order.

    “Such times are very much like the 1930s,” he told NBC.

    The end of the Second World War ushered in a new monetary and geopolitical world order. But history tends to repeat itself.

    “These go in cycles that can be measured, and I worry about the breakdown of that kind of order, particularly since it doesn’t need to happen,” he told NBC, adding that there are better ways to restructure debt.

    Whether tariffs are implemented in a “stable” way or a “chaotic and disruptive way” can make “all the difference in the world,” he said. But so far, the tariffs have been akin to “throwing rocks into the production system.” In other words, highly disruptive.

    “Right now we’re at a juncture,” he told NBC. He believes Congress needs to get the budget deficit down to 3% of GDP while managing trade deficits “in the right way.” If not, there will be a supply-demand issue for debt and “the results of that will be worse than a normal recession.”

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    How can you prepare your finances?

    If you’re an average American, how can you heed Dalio’s warning? Start by establishing an emergency fund (if you don’t already have one) that will cover at least three to six months of expenses — perhaps more, if you’re in a job that could be impacted by tariffs and trade wars.

    Pay down high-interest debt (like credit cards) and avoid building up more debt if possible. While times of uncertainty can lead to retail therapy — where we buy something to get a temporary hit of dopamine to combat our stress and anxiety — you’ll likely feel better in the long run if you cut back on unnecessary spending.

    After you’ve taken care of your emergency fund and high-interest debt, you can prioritize saving for retirement and other long-term goals. You may want to consider diversifying your income stream, like taking on a side hustle, or reskilling to manage changes in the job market.

    It may also be a good time to diversify your investments across different asset classes to mitigate risk. That might mean adjusting your mix of stocks, bonds and other assets.

    If you’re close to retirement, you might want to shift to lower-risk assets, like dividend-paying stocks. Alternative investments , such as gold and real estate, are often considered a hedge against inflation and recession.

    If you’re new to hedging — a risk management strategy that can help offset losses by purchasing investments in an opposite position to an existing investment — you may want to consult with a financial advisor to see how this could help mitigate risk in your portfolio.

    Depending on whether you’re close to retirement or not, you may want to adjust your retirement strategy — and adjust your risk tolerance to match that strategy. If you’re a young investor, you still have time for the market to recover, so avoid panic selling.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • This 43-year-old Detroit native enjoys a ‘very relaxed’ life in Oman on $44K/year — eating out and traveling regularly. Here’s why she won’t move back to the US

    This 43-year-old Detroit native enjoys a ‘very relaxed’ life in Oman on $44K/year — eating out and traveling regularly. Here’s why she won’t move back to the US

    For Detroit native Nicole Brewer, moving to Oman was never on her radar. She had been teaching English as a second language in South Korea for three years, but by 2012 was ready for a change.

    While looking for jobs in the Middle East, her first thought was Dubai.

    “Because, you know, obviously everybody knows the [United Arab Emirates],” she told CNBC Make It.

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    But then she came across a posting for a teaching job in Nizwa — an ancient city in Oman — and was struck by its beauty. After doing some research, she decided to try it out, and she’s been there ever since.

    Now 43, she says she’s “very, very grateful to be in Oman” and doesn’t plan to ever move back to the U.S.

    “Being in Oman, I’m very relaxed. I don’t have as much stress when it comes to the everyday expenses of living in this region,” she tells CNBC.

    Life in Oman: The pros and cons

    Brewer isn’t Muslim, nor does she speak Arabic. The culture is conservative compared to American standards. But Nizwa also has a laid-back vibe and a low crime rate.

    “Honestly, it’s not for everybody,” she tells CNBC. But she describes herself as a go-with-the-flow type of person, “and as long as you respect the culture, it’s definitely a nice life.”

    Brewer can also live well, on less money, by embracing a simpler lifestyle. She earns $40,000 a year at her job (and another $4,000 from some side gigs), which may not seem like much — at least by American standards.

    However, she pays just $650 a month for a furnished two-bedroom apartment, including utilities, and it’s just a short walk to work. And she has enough money to go out for dinner with her circle of expat friends on a regular basis.

    Since the cost of living is so low, she’s able to save money, which allows her to travel on summer and winter breaks. So far, she’s travelled to Namibia, Seychelles and Bali. She’s also planning to eventually retire in Portugal. Plus, she no longer worries about overspending, which has reduced her stress levels.

    But it’s not just about money. Brewer tells CNBC that she doesn’t face some of the challenges that she did as a Black woman living in America. In Oman, she doesn’t deal with “much or any racism.”

    Rather, she says she has “passport privilege” because “people here have respect for Americans,” and she’s treated warmly by locals — especially when they find out she’s a teacher.

    Yet, living abroad does come with challenges — like being far away from friends and family. Plus, casual dating isn’t done in Omani culture, so her dating pool is limited to other expats.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    What you need to know before you go

    The estimated monthly cost for a family of four in Oman is $2,596, excluding rent, while a single person can expect to pay an average of $747, excluding rent.

    A one-bedroom apartment costs on average $532 in the city center or $361 outside the city center, according to data compiled by Numbeo. Compared to Detroit, the average rent in Nizwa is 84.1% less.

    Brewer tells CNBC that she spent just $163 on dining out with friends in January. In Nizwa, a meal in an inexpensive restaurant averages just $2.60 while a three-course meal for two people in a mid-range restaurant averages about $26.

    While the cost of living can be attractive, it’s also important to understand the social norms, local customs and societal structure of any country you want to move to. In this case, Oman adheres to Islamic traditions, and American women may find gender roles more restrictive (both socially and professionally).

    For Americans who want to move to Oman, they’ll need a resident-sponsored visa or unsponsored visa. If you’re a sponsored worker, such as Brewer, you can get an employment visa, but you also have the option of a student visa, spouse visa, family joining visa or investor visa, among others. You can also apply for an unsponsored resident visa if you buy certain types of property.

    While you’ll need to understand the tax obligations in your new home country, you’ll also still need to pay taxes to the IRS. You’ll want to avoid double taxation, so you may want to consider working with a tax professional with experience in assisting U.S. citizens abroad.

    You’ll also need health insurance, so that’s another cost to factor in (many long-term visas require proof of health insurance). In Oman, for example, citizens receive free or low-cost health care, but expats are typically required to have private health insurance — plus, private hospitals are more likely to provide English-language services.

    Working with an immigration lawyer in Oman, or wherever you hope to move, could help you navigate any hurdles.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • ‘They put the fear of God in me’: Albuquerque woman, 67, lost her life savings to an Apple phishing scam — now she ‘can’t remake that money to retire.’ What she wishes she’d done differently

    ‘They put the fear of God in me’: Albuquerque woman, 67, lost her life savings to an Apple phishing scam — now she ‘can’t remake that money to retire.’ What she wishes she’d done differently

    Losing your life savings can be devastating, especially when you’re close to retirement. But for one Albuquerque resident, Judy Hartmann-Ortiz, it’s all the more painful because she was scammed out of the money.

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    The 67-year-old has worked as a server at various restaurants for decades. She doesn’t have a lot of extra money, but over time she managed to save $32,000 for retirement. Then in March, she fell victim to a phishing scam — and now that hard-earned money is gone.

    “They put the fear of God in me immediately, and I didn’t have time to think,” she told Albuquerque TV station KOB 4. Now she “can’t remake that money to retire.”

    A Gofundme to help her rebuild her savings has raised over $12,000 out of a $35,000 goal.

    "For over 40 years, Judy has been a familiar face amongst Nob Hill Restaurants (Yannie’s, Central Bodega & Mission Winery), serving her community with a warm smile, a kind heart, and an unwavering work ethic," it says. "The devastating loss has left her struggling to make ends meet, and despite her strength, this is a burden that no one should have to carry alone."

    How phishing scams work

    In 2024, phishing or spoofing scams were the most common type of cybercrime reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI’s) Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3). More than 193,000 Americans were the targets of these scams, losing a total of more than $70 million.

    Phishing or spoofing scams trick you into giving away sensitive data, such as passwords or account information, sometimes through a fake, or spoofed, website. Scammers could also trick you into withdrawing your money and depositing it into a bitcoin account.

    For Hartmann-Ortiz, the scam started with a text message she thought was from Apple, saying someone had used her account to make an unauthorized purchase. The text message also provided her with a number to call.

    When she called, she was told her bank account had been compromised and her savings were at risk. There were no immediate red flags to alert Hartmann-Ortiz that it was a scam — she wasn’t asked for her bank account information or Social Security number.

    But the person on the other end of the line told her that to protect her money, she needed to withdraw it all and put it in a newly created bitcoin account. Worried that she was about to lose her life savings, she did as she was told.

    Still, something didn’t sit right with Hartmann-Ortiz. After speaking with her boss about what had happened, she realized she’d been scammed.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    “They get you so fast. I called that number and from then on it was pretty much over,” Hartmann-Ortiz told KOB 4. Afterwards, “you feel so ashamed and so stupid.”

    According to the news report, her advice to others is to trust their gut — if something seems off, it probably is. She also told the news station she wishes she had called a friend first instead of panicking and calling the scammers.

    The police, FBI and her bank have said there isn’t much they can do to get her money back.

    What to do if it happens to you

    The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) provides a helpful guide on what to do if you’ve been scammed.

    By immediately reporting the crime to your financial institution, it may be possible to cancel or reverse the transaction. If you sent cash by U.S. mail, you can contact the U.S. Postal Inspection Service and ask them to intercept the package. If you paid the scammer with gift cards, contact the company that issued them, inform them of the scam and ask them to refund your money.

    Unfortunately, in the case of Hartmann-Ortiz, she withdrew her money herself and sent it to a cryptocurrency wallet she doesn’t control, which makes getting the money back almost impossible.

    If the scammer has your personal information, you also want to take steps to protect yourself from identity theft.

    To avoid phishing scams, never click on links or open attachments in suspicious emails or texts — and never call the number provided in those emails or texts.

    If the text is from your "bank," look up your bank’s phone number or go to a branch in-person to validate whether the message is real or not. Try not to give into panic — that’s what scammers are betting on.

    Among the red flags the FBI says to look out for are email addresses disguised to look legitimate, errors in punctuation or grammar and requests for personal information such as passwords or bank account numbers.

    Typically, scammers use a sense of urgency to induce panic and manipulate their victims into making irrational decisions. They often ask for payment in cryptocurrency or sometimes gift cards.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • ‘People tend to shelter in place when the future of their job is uncertain’: How homebuyers can still get ahead in an uncertain market with rising prices and mortgage rates

    ‘People tend to shelter in place when the future of their job is uncertain’: How homebuyers can still get ahead in an uncertain market with rising prices and mortgage rates

    With home prices continuing to rise and mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high, is the American dream of homeownership out of reach?

    Home prices jumped 3.8% in February compared to the same time last year, according to the latest National Association of Realtors (NAR) findings. That translates to a median cost of $398,400 for a typical home.

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    And while mortgage rates are slowly ticking down, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage still averaged 6.65% as of March 27, according to Freddie Mac.

    But it’s not all bad news. Housing inventory is up 17% from a year ago (from 1.06 million to 1.24 million units), which means homebuyers now have more options.

    “Homebuyers are slowly entering the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, in a press release. “Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”

    How home prices are affecting buyers and sellers

    While housing inventory is up, supply is still limited relative to demand, according to NAR’s Realtors Confidence Index. About 21% of homes sold above list price — though some faced delays or terminations. First-time buyers represented 31% of home purchases, up from 26% a year ago.

    Still, the dream of homeownership is slipping away for many Americans, particularly as prices continue to outpace wage growth.

    Affordability remains near historic lows across most of the country, according to ATTOM’s first-quarter 2025 U.S. Home Affordability Report, with home expenses consuming 32% of the average national wage.

    “With the peak buying season ahead, prices could rise further, worsening affordability,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM, in a release.

    According to Zillow’s market heat index, neither buyers nor sellers currently have a clear advantage — at least not on a national level. But market conditions vary widely across the country. For example, government layoffs in Washington, D.C. could lead to more listings, while housing shortages in L.A. caused by January’s wildfires are likely to drive up demand — and prices.

    Economic uncertainty is providing a “counterbalance” that will be felt more strongly in some parts of the country than others, notes Zillow’s Housing Market Report for February 2025.

    “People tend to shelter in place when the future of their job or industry is uncertain,” the report noted.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    How to navigate a challenging market

    With so much uncertainty, how can potential homebuyers navigate today’s market?

    Start by securing a mortgage pre-approval, so you’ll know your budget — and be ready to make an offer if you find your dream home. Keep in mind that a pre-approval isn’t a guarantee of final mortgage approval. However, sellers often prefer to work with pre-approved buyers because it reduces their risk.

    Pre-approval tells you the maximum loan amount your lender is willing to offer based on your financial situation. If it’s less than you hoped for, that doesn’t mean you’re out of luck. You might want to focus on different property types (such as a condo instead of a three-bedroom house) or focus on emerging neighborhoods to get more bang for your buck.

    You’ll also need to decide how much you can afford for a down payment and whether a fixed or adjustable interest rate works best for you. If you’re willing to bet that rates will come down eventually, you might want to consider an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).

    An ARM starts with a fixed rate that’s typically lower than that of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — usually for three, five, seven or 10 years — and then adjusts at set intervals. For example, a 5/1 ARM has a fixed rate for five years and then adjusts annually.

    Where can I find more help?

    First-time homebuyers may also qualify for certain programs and loans. For example, a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan — available through qualified lenders and backed by the FHA — is generally easier to qualify for than a conventional mortgage and has lower down payment requirements. These loans do come with limits, which vary by state.

    Many states also offer down payment assistance for eligible first-time homebuyers.

    Veterans and active-duty service members may be eligible for U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) direct and VA-backed home loan programs through qualified lenders, which often offer better terms than conventional loans. Nearly 90% of VA-backed loans don’t require a down payment.

    There are also down payment assistance (DPA) programs available through state, county and city governments. These offer financial assistance through grants and low-interest loans to cover down payments — and sometimes closing costs. There are nearly 2,500 DPA programs currently available nationwide.

    Alternatively, you might choose to wait for potential rate stabilization. A lower interest rate make a big difference: lower monthly payments can stretch your budget and help you afford a more expensive home. But there’s no guarantee that rates will drop soon.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • The way you access your Social Security account has changed for millions of US retirees. Could you be at risk of missing out on your benefits?

    The way you access your Social Security account has changed for millions of US retirees. Could you be at risk of missing out on your benefits?

    There’s been a lot of fear mongering about the move from my Social Security to Login.gov, a new digital requirement introduced by the Social Security Administration (SSA). Does that mean you’re at risk of losing your monthly Social Security payments if you fail to move over to the new platform?

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    In July 2024, the SSA announced it was changing the way people access online services. Those who created their account before Sept. 18, 2021 are required to transition to Login.gov to access their Social Security account. No action is necessary for people who created their account after that time.

    If you need to make the transition and haven’t done so yet, then now’s the time — but it’s not as dire as it might sound.

    What’s the reason behind the move?

    Login.gov lets you sign into multiple government agency websites using one account. It partners with the Office of Personnel Management, the Department of Homeland Security, the Veterans Administration and the SSA to facilitate access to programs such as USAJOBS and Trusted Traveler, as well as websites such as VA.gov and my Social Security.

    Login.gov is designed to be more convenient, but also more secure. When you sign into your account, you’ll be asked to provide your password and another authentication method, such as face or touch unlock, a security key, a text message or phone call with a one-time code or even backup codes that you can print off.

    Federal government employees and military personnel can use their personal identity verification (PIV) or common access cards (CACs) for authentication.

    Some agencies will also require you to electronically submit additional documents such as a photo ID. Those unable to submit this electronically can also present their documentation at a participating U.S. Postal Service location.

    To create an account, go to the sign-up page at Login.gov. You’ll need to provide an email address, a password and one or more authentication methods.

    You can also access your my Social Security account if you have an ID.me account — and you don’t need to create a new ID.me account to do so. ID.me is another single sign-on provider that meets the government’s authentication standards.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    What happens if you haven’t switched yet?

    Those who didn’t voluntarily make the switch to Login.gov by March 29 will now be directed to do so when they attempt to sign into their my Social Security account.

    Later this year, the “sign in with Social Security username” option will be removed and these username accounts will be retired soon, so you should act immediately.

    Some headlines suggest that you’ll lose your benefits if you don’t transition to Login.gov or ID.me. However, “your Social Security benefits and Medicare premium deductions are not affected by the transition,” the SSA states on its website.

    The SSA does warn that until you make the transition, you won’t be able to access your account. In this case, it’s possible you could experience an interruption to your benefits — if, for instance, your bank account changes and you’re unable to inform the SSA in a timely manner. Of course, this is easily avoided by taking the time now to transition to Login.gov.

    That being said, not everyone will find the transition to be straightforward. About 10% of U.S. adults 65 or older don’t use the Internet and about one in five seniors don’t subscribe to home broadband, according to Pew Research.

    Those who do have access may lack the digital literacy skills required to switch to a new way of logging in or setting up an authentication method. This is particularly true for older adults, with research showing they have a much lower level of digital understanding than younger people.

    Help is available from the SSA, but with staff cuts, there may be long wait times on the phone or for in-person appointments. Plus, in-person assistance may require travel — and that might be challenging for some seniors, low-income individuals and those with a disability or mobility issue. These factors could lead to delays in transitioning to the new system.

    For those who need help setting up their new account (and have internet access), there are online resources that can help. For example, the SSA has a step-by-step video and a [FAQ page[(https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/account-transition-faqs.html) with answers to common questions. Login.gov also has a help page and ID.me has a help center.

    What to do if you miss some payments

    The potential for a disruption to your benefits illustrates the importance of having an emergency fund in a high-yield savings account. Those whose cash flow is temporarily interrupted should try to lean on this fund rather than increase withdrawals from other retirement accounts, which might hurt planned future income.

    If you do need to draw on retirement accounts, talk to an advisor before you do, in order to make a plan that best protects future cash flows.

    Since the loss of benefits is temporary, short-term spending sacrifices are also likely to help without being too painful. Having a budget and tracking expenses will make it easier to determine where cuts could be made. .

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • There’s a new ‘magic number’ Americans say they’ll need to retire comfortably — and it’s a shocking change since 2024. Here’s how to reach it ASAP without turning to sorcery

    There’s a new ‘magic number’ Americans say they’ll need to retire comfortably — and it’s a shocking change since 2024. Here’s how to reach it ASAP without turning to sorcery

    Humans often seek easy answers and shortcuts. This is not always a flaw, but a form of efficiency. So, it’s no surprise that we want a ‘magic’ answer to one of the biggest financial decisions we need to make: how much to save for retirement.

    As a result, we often have a ‘magic number’ in mind for our retirement savings.

    This year, that ‘magic number’ Americans believe they’ll need to retire comfortably is $1.26 million, according to Northwest Mutual’s 2025 Planning & Progress Study.

    This is $200,000 less than the estimated $1.46 million they believed they’d need when they were surveyed last year. This number is also more in line with the 2022 and 2023 estimates, indicating a reversal in thinking from last year to the years before.

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    Why the ‘magic number’ might be lower this year

    It’s likely that the decline in the ‘magic number’ from last year is at least partially related to declines in inflation, which has been falling — albeit unevenly — since peaking in the summer of 2022.

    As inflation has fallen, so too have expectations of future inflation, which were lower in 2024 than in the previous couple of years. This suggests that for that year, future retirees may not believe high inflation would eat away at their retirement savings, compared to years prior.

    It may also be that views on retirement are changing. Whether by necessity or intention, about half of workers plan not to retire before the ‘traditional’ age of 65 and 39% expect to retire only at 70 or older, or not to retire at all, according to a report by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. This could mean a shorter retirement and additional income during this period, reducing the size of an individual’s needed nest egg.

    Is the ‘magic number’ a reasonable goal?

    Before you start worrying about achieving that ‘magic number,’ it’s worthwhile to determine if it’s a reasonable goal. In 2023, the average expenditure for a household where the ‘head’ of the household is 65 years or older was $60,087, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Assuming most retirees will collect Social Security benefits — averaging about $1,997 in March 2025 (just under $24,000 a year), and further assuming only one member of the household will collect benefits, a household would need an additional sum of about $36,000 a year to cover expenses.

    A common rule of thumb is to withdraw 4% of your nest egg in the first year of retirement and then to continue withdrawing that amount (adjusted for inflation) each year afterward. This would allow your nest egg to provide income for the duration of most retirements. If you need $36,000 per year, then you’d need an initial nest egg of about $900,000 — making $1.26 million more than many need.

    But research by the Employee Benefits Research Institute shows that retirees are cutting back on expenditures because of insufficient income, so using actual expenditures may give a more accurate picture of the amount retirees will need to live comfortably.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    Another retirement rule of thumb is to estimate that you’ll need 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income to retire comfortably. Real median household income in the U.S. was $80,610 in 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    A range of 70% to 80% would be about $56,000 to $65,000, which — when applying $24,000 from Social Security — implies a required nest egg of $800,000 to $1.025 million, which is still below the ‘magic number’ of $1.26 million.

    Retirement is personal

    While the ‘magic number’ may be higher than many people need, calculations that use averages, medians and rules of thumb don’t help you determine what your exact number should be — and your own situation is likely to be quite unique.

    After all, retirement is a very personal thing. If you want to estimate what your own ‘magic number’ might be, it’s worth speaking to a financial advisor.

    Many advisors have access to modeling programs that factor in your personal circumstances and plans for retirement to come up with a number that works for you. Once they know this number, they can set up a suitable savings and investment program so you can reach this goal. A helpful feature is that these models can be used to run scenarios — such as accounting for higher inflation — to see how this might affect your plans.

    There are several factors that go into figuring out your number. Where you plan to retire can make a big difference, as can what you plan to do in retirement.

    Some states are much more expensive than others for retirees, while others continue to be popular. And if you plan to travel a lot, this is likely to cost you more than if you plan to stay close to home and spend time with your children and grandchildren.

    Healthcare can be a big expense that grows through retirement. It’s impossible to predict what health challenges you may encounter, but if you already have chronic conditions that may get worse with time, it’s important to consider how this might lead to extra expenses in retirement and require a larger nest egg.

    Non-investment sources of income will also play a role. Most retirees are at least somewhat reliant on Social Security and some may have a pension — or even plan to work part-time in their semi-retirement years.

    You may want to have a ‘magic number’ — but you should arrive at it through analysis of your own unique situation. And you should be prepared to change that number if your retirement goals or circumstances change as you age.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • Can buying in bulk actually cost you more? Why Americans desperate for savings should be wary of warehouse clubs like Costco

    Can buying in bulk actually cost you more? Why Americans desperate for savings should be wary of warehouse clubs like Costco

    With prices rising, consumers are increasingly looking for ways to save money. And one way to do that is through warehouse club retail stores, like Sam’s Club, Costco and BJ’s Wholesale Club. But is membership all it’s cracked up to be?

    Shopper Britney Downing tells KHOU-11 that she saves on cereal for her five kids. “I can get two bags of cereal here at Sam’s for about six bucks.”

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    This comes at a time when consumer confidence is plummeting, with fears over how trade policies and tariffs will impact the cost of living. American consumers have already seen what’s happened with the price of eggs.

    That could be why many “are now turning to the club channel for routine household shopping,” according to research from Acosta Group. “They are seeking good value and prices that better fit their budget, with millennials driving most of these increases.”

    Compared to a year ago, 21% of respondents are shopping at a warehouse club more often, and 28% say they’re buying grocery and household needs there — not just big-ticket items.

    How warehouse clubs work

    A warehouse club is still a retail store. But to shop there, you’ll need to become a member first. An annual membership fee typically costs from $60 to $120, which can usually be recouped in savings if you use the membership enough. But there are a few considerations to be aware of before joining.

    Warehouse clubs typically offer everything from groceries to electronics to clothing. What sets them apart from traditional retail stores, however, is that they offer these items in bulk at discounted or wholesale pricing. They might also offer discounted services such as travel and insurance, and may have an on-site pharmacy, optical center and/or gas station.

    The benefits? You can save on bulk purchases and gain access to deals and discounts. Some stores, like Costco, offer a money-back guarantee if you’re not satisfied with your membership.

    The downside? A membership may not be worth it if you don’t shop there frequently enough to offset the savings. There are other issues, too: It can lead to impulse buying, which defeats the purpose of joining a club to save money.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    Things to keep an eye out for

    A warehouse club membership isn’t a scam, but not every deal is really a deal. Buying in bulk, for example, isn’t always a bargain. And the selection of big-ticket items like electronics or appliances may be more limited than what you’d find at a specialist retailer.

    Many products, from groceries to vitamins, have a shelf-life. So buying in bulk may not save you money if you can’t get through a super-size version of that product before it expires. If you can’t eat 24 oranges before they start to rot, you’re literally throwing those savings in the garbage.

    Warehouse clubs are typically designed to get you to shop more and spend more. The layout can be confusing; usually the groceries are at the back — behind all the fun big-ticket items like flat-screen TVs. And free food sample stations tempt you to spend more time in the store.

    Warehouse clubs may also employ tactics that lure you into making impulse buys with signage such as ‘limited quantities.’ Many marketers use this ploy, not only warehouse clubs, but it’s good to be aware of it. You don’t want to walk out with a giant flat-screen TV when you just came for groceries.

    How to protect your finances

    Before joining a club, consider whether you’ll go often enough to justify the membership fee. Do you have enough room to store these bulk items? For perishable items, will you be able to eat everything before it goes to waste? If you’re buying a big-ticket item, are you really getting a deal?

    You may find better sale prices on electronics or appliances at retailers who specialize in those products, especially during Black Friday. It’s worth doing a price comparison of big-ticket items against other retailers, such as Walmart, Amazon and Best Buy.

    If you do buy a big-ticket item from a warehouse club, be sure to understand the return and refund policy (some product categories may be exempt or have a limited return window).

    If you have a membership, avoid shopping traps by making a shopping list before you go. It could be helpful to create a budget to prevent you from overspending. If you’re about to make an impulsive buy on a ‘deal’ — walk away, do the rest of your shopping and come back after you’ve had a moment to think about it.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • ‘We’re looking at a slowdown’: 3 warning signs point to a U.S. recession. Find out what the indicators are and how to protect your finances in the months ahead

    ‘We’re looking at a slowdown’: 3 warning signs point to a U.S. recession. Find out what the indicators are and how to protect your finances in the months ahead

    The U.S. is not in a recession — yet.

    But with policy uncertaintly around tariffs, mass deportations and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts, some economic observers believe the odds are rising.

    “We’ve got a real uncertainty problem, it’s going to be hard to fix that,” former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin.

    “We’re looking at a slowdown relative to what was forecast, almost for sure, and a serious, near 50% prospect of recession.”

    J.P Morgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman predicts a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year.

    “If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up,” he told reporters.

    Of CFOs polled in the latest CNBC CFO Council Survey, the majority (95%) said government policy is impacting their ability to make business decisions. Three-quarters expected the economy to enter a recession in the latter half of this year or in 2026.

    So what exactly defines a recession?

    In the U.S., recessions are officially declared and dated — often retroactively — by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.

    The committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

    In wider practice, two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth point to a recession.

    Though there hasn’t been an official declaration, there are three warning signs all pointing to a potential recession:

    Don’t miss

    The yield curve is signaling a recession. One predictor of a recession is when the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds falls below that of the three-month Treasury bill.

    This occurred in late 2022 and lasted until late 2024, and occurred again in late February — and the yield spread between the two remains negative.

    The time from when this situation occurs until the onset of a recession can vary, but it’s a strong indicator of a recession in the coming 16 to 20 months.

    Leading economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown. Another predictor is the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI). This index fell%20in%20January.) in February for the third consecutive month. The Conference Board is forecasting that GDP growth will slow.

    Data and sentiment are turning negative. Consumer confidence is dropping, recent data for retail sales has been weak and the Federal Reserve Bank’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is high. CEOs are more pessimistic, consumers are pulling back and “workers are getting nervous,” according to The Wall Street Journal. And the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model is predicting that GDP growth will retract by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2025.

    Be proactive to weather a downturn

    All this talk of a recession may have you concerned. The best approach is to be proactive — but not panicked.

    Build up an emergency fund. Prepare for potentially difficult times by setting aside an emergency fund that covers at least three months to a year of expenses, depending on how long you think it might take to get a job if you’re laid off. To boost your savings, investigate a high-interest savings account (HISA) or a high-yield savings account.

    Pay down debt and avoid unnecessary expenditures. Servicing a large amount of debt could be a problem if your income declines or everyday costs go up (like egg prices). Avoid extra financial stress by creating a budget, paring down spending where you can and weighing large purchases carefully.

    Protect or increase your income. You may want to look into a side hustle or second job to bring in some extra cash.

    Talk to a financial adviser about how to maximize your investment performance. Make sure your portfolio is suitably diversified, including geographically, with exposure to sectors that perform better in a recession.

    Most financial professionals advise against trying to time the market. Multiple studies show that staying in the market during downturns leads to better long-term returns, especially when you employ dollar-cost averaging — investing the same amount of money in the same securities at regular intervals regardless of their prices.

    If you’ve been laid off, talk to your adviser about strategies that may make sense in low-tax years, such as a Roth conversion.

    You may not have much control over whether there’s a recession, but you can take steps to weather the storm.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • Panicked Americans are claiming Social Security early for fear of Trump slashing benefits and ‘chaos’ at the agency disrupting services

    Panicked Americans are claiming Social Security early for fear of Trump slashing benefits and ‘chaos’ at the agency disrupting services

    There’s been a spike in claims for Social Security — and fear may be one of the reasons why.

    Don’t miss

    Pending claims for retirement, survivor and health insurance benefits jumped 16% in March to 580,887 from 500,527 a year earlier, according to an operational report from the Social Security Administration (SSA).

    Agency officials said that “fear mongering has driven people to claim benefits earlier” at a March 28 meeting that can be viewed on YouTube.

    Many Americans were already anxious about the long-term stability of Social Security. But leadership changes, staff cuts, office closures, debate and theories about privatization and alarming disinformation about widespread fraud are possibly creating a perfect storm of anxiety for many Americans.

    The Trump administration changes and claims of fraud are "leading people to make decisions based on fear,” Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told The Wall Street Journal.

    Why Americans are worried about Social Security

    While President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he won’t cut Social Security benefits, fear is driving some Americans to claim their benefit earlier than planned — even if it means reducing their overall retirement income.

    Dan Hietpas, 64, told the Journal he was planning to claim Social Security at age 67 to maximize his benefit. But he’s taking it early due to concerns about benefit cuts and “chaos” at the agency. Christine Banner, 65, told the Journal she originally intended to file in about two years, but filed this year because she and her husband worry Trump’s allegations of fraud could be used to justify benefit cuts or service disruptions. "The couple hopes that if they are already receiving benefits, they won’t face any future reductions," said the report.

    Officials at the meeting also mentioned an increase in field office visits, calls to the agency and website traffic.

    More visitors are paying the SSA $100 for certified copies of earnings records. Hietpas and his wife, Jill, printed out their earnings records “in case their data disappears or becomes inaccurate.”

    “Typical year earnings statements is something we would not generally discuss about visitors coming to see us … They’re afraid of our systems going down. That’s what they’re telling us,” said an official. He also mentioned people coming in for ID proofing “because they’re afraid.”

    This is amid an environment of confusion created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with its mandate to cut waste and reduce fraud.

    Earlier this year, DOGE under Elon Musk made leadership changes at the SSA, shuttered two departments, and reduced staff from 57,000 to 50,000 — though the agency was already chronically understaffed.

    Recently there have been reports of longer wait times for callers and website outages.

    DOGE also announced it was reducing 10 regional offices down to four and, on its website, listed federal real estate leases linked with 47 field offices that it is seeking to cancel, reported AP. The new SSA administration has since denied claims of field office closures, but Nancy Altman at Social Security Works told ThinkAdvisorthe statement was “splitting hairs” and “deceptive.”

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    There were also plans to scrap some services offered over the phone, but those plans were abandoned after panic ensued.

    Amid this overhaul, some lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders began to worry the Trump administration is setting the stage to privatize Social Security. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggested letting Americans invest part of their Social Security funds.

    However, there is another great existential issue facing the program. Social Security is expected to run short of funds by 2035, which means it would only be able to pay 83% of benefits, according to the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report.

    The cost of claiming early

    Retirees may claim Social Security earlier than planned for any number of reasons, such as the loss of a job or a deteriorating health condition. At the same time, baby boomers in America are reaching “peak 65,” which means more than 4.1 million will turn 65 each year through 2027, potentially contributing to a surge in new claims.

    But workers tend to claim benefits sooner when Social Security’s finances are referenced negatively in the news, according to a 2021 study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

    Americans might also be worried about withdrawing from their nest egg while markets are plunging and economic uncertainty hangs in the air.

    The drawback of claiming Social Security early, however, is that you would miss out on a larger monthly benefit over the long run. While you can claim your benefit as early as age 62, the longer you wait, the bigger your monthly check.

    For example, you’ll take a reduced amount until you reach your full retirement age (FRA) as defined by the SSA, which is typically between 66 and 67 years of age. If you take your benefit at age 62, you could see a reduction in your benefit by as much as 30% (since it’s being stretched over a longer period of time).

    If you delay your benefit past full retirement age, your monthly check will increase as much as 8% a year until age 70. Those increases stop at age 70.

    Still, it doesn’t hurt to shore up your finances, especially in times of economic uncertainty. That might mean building an emergency fund, paying off any high-interest debt and saving more aggressively.

    It could be a good time to sit down with your financial advisor to ensure your portfolio is well diversified and has the right asset allocation for you; you may want to explore options beyond stocks and bonds or invest in alternative assets such as real estate or precious metals.

    While the future is unpredictable, most financial experts advise against making rash decisions with your finances based on fear — and that includes your Social Security benefit.

    It may be worth sitting down with your advisor or even a financial counselor before making a major financial decision that could impact your retirement permanently.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

  • The average American’s net worth spikes 15% after retirement — here’s why some retirees aren’t tapping their nest eggs until later and how to take full advantage of the growth ASAP

    The average American’s net worth spikes 15% after retirement — here’s why some retirees aren’t tapping their nest eggs until later and how to take full advantage of the growth ASAP

    Are you expecting to see your net worth grow after you retire? Many don’t — because, after all, you expect to be drawing down the nest egg you’ve built during your working years. But surprisingly, many seniors do see their net worth grow in the first decade of retirement.

    The median net worth of a household where the reference person is 55 to 64 is $364.5K, according to data from the latest Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2022.

    Don’t miss

    But the median net worth of a household where the reference person is 65 to 74 is $409.9K — even though the average retirement age in the U.S. is 62, according to a recent MassMutual study.

    Average net worths are significantly higher, according to the Federal Reserve, but represent a similar spike: $1,566,900 for those 55 to 64 and $1,794,600 for those 65 to 74.

    That means net worth is increasing for many seniors over the first years of their retirement.

    Why would this be?

    Retirees aren’t tapping their nest egg

    Retirees’ net worth may initially grow if they don’t need to touch their nest egg. Indeed, there’s some evidence that retirees aren’t taking income from their retirement savings until later in retirement.

    A JPMorgan Chase study analyzed by Smart Asset found that, from 2013 to 2018, 80% of retirees didn’t withdraw from accounts requiring required minimum distributions (RMDs) prior to reaching RMD age, which was 70.5 at the time and is now 73.

    Further, once they started taking RMDs, they withdrew only the minimum amount, which suggests they could live off other income sources for at least the first few years of retirement.

    One of these income sources might have been Social Security retirement benefits.

    In 2023, the average age for starting retirement benefits was 65.2, but 22.5% of men and 24% of women took their benefit at age 62, according to the SSA.

    In April 2025, the average monthly benefit paid to retirees was $2,000, which translates to an annual income of about $24,000.

    A defined benefit (DB) pension is another potential source of income that doesn’t draw on retirement savings. While DB pension plans are less common nowadays than they used to be — and are largely confined to unionized and public sector workers — there are still millions of Americans who are beneficiaries of public and private DB plans.

    These retirees receive lifetime income from these plans, starting from the time they retire. They may be able to rely solely on this income, but if the amount is less than they’d like, it can be supplemented with Social Security — and they may not need to draw from their savings.

    Although it’s not a consistent form of income, retirees may have inherited money that they can then use to cover living expenses and reduce their dependence on savings — or they could invest it, which could directly increase their net worth.

    Read more: Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich in America — and that ‘anyone’ can do it

    Retirees tend to spend less

    Helping to stretch these initial income streams is the fact that people tend to reduce their real consumption expenditures when they retire and continue to do so through the early years of retirement, according to the Financial Planning Association.

    Some of this may be related to frugality — or fear they haven’t saved enough — but it may also be attributable to less spending on clothing, entertainment and dining out.

    A bigger nest egg can drive a new retirement plan

    When retirees can live off other sources of income and don’t need to tap their retirement accounts, the investments in these accounts can continue growing, leading to a higher net worth. At the same time, many retirees’ homes are also appreciating in value, further contributing to net worth growth.

    Post-retirement net worth growth is a reminder that financial planning doesn’t end at retirement. Retirees experiencing growth in their net worth may want to work with a financial advisor to evaluate whether this should change their plans.

    For instance, if the growth is in their portfolio, they may want to assess whether they should allow their investments to keep growing at the same pace or perhaps reduce some of their risk — or even cash out some profit to preserve their gains in a volatile market.

    More broadly, it’s a good time to re-evaluate their goals, income streams and spending. For example, it may make sense to draw from investments now and delay taking Social Security.

    For some, this growth may be needed to ensure they don’t run out of money in their lifetime. Others may see it as an opportunity to increase their retirement income and live less frugally — opening up new possibilities for their golden years.

    What to read next

    This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.