The holiday season is always a time when people spend big, but that may not be the case this year. In fact, a survey from PwC found that consumers expect to spend 5% less this year than last year, with the projected average coming in at $1,552. (1)
Online spending is one area where people won’t be dropping as much. While there’s expected to be a 5.3% year-over-year increase in dollars spent, that is a significant decline from last year, when online sales increased by 8.7%, according to an Adobe Analytics report. (2) It’s also below average for the last decade, where there’s been roughly 13% growth year over year in the amount spent online during the holidays.
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Retail spending isn’t expected to do much better, either. Although in-store spending is expected to increase 2.75% for 2025, according to Bain & Company’s annual holiday forecast, that falls short of the 10-year average of 3.2% growth. (3) The consulting firm says consumer caution, whether it be in-store or online, means that expectations for overall holiday spending are just 4% growth year over year — markedly less than the 10-year average of 5.2%.
Still, consumers will be hitting the stores and filling their online shopping carts — and there are tools out there to help them be more price-conscious and stick to a budget if they’re worried about their finances.
Consumers are spending, albeit differently
While growth in spending will be slower this year, the fact is that consumers are still planning to spend something — and there are certain trends that could help stores overcome consumer fears about tariffs and the economy and still have a decent holiday season.
For example, CNBC reports that many consumers who have concerns about future price increases are stockpiling goods now. (4) Their concerns about volatility are actually helping stores, at least in the short term, because they are buying more than they ordinarily would as a form of insurance against tariff-related price increases.
Reuters reported on stockpiling trends earlier in the year, indicating that this trend started months ago out of fear over tariffs. (5)
"People are worried that the cost [of goods] is going to go up and, you know, let’s stock up," Manish Kapoor, founder and CEO of supply management firm Growth Catalyst Group, told Reuters at the time.
Some consumers are also interested in deals, with the Wall Street Journal reporting in August that bulk buying and deal hunting have become the norm. (6) Buying in bulk, or stockpiling, can at least temporarily bolster sales for retailers as consumers buy many more products at once.
These two trends may be a welcome relief for retailers who are happy to see people coming in and buying in large quantities, even at a time when there are serious concerns about spending.
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Tools to help you find holiday deals
If you are interested in finding deals because you want to spend less for the holidays this year, the good news is that there are tools out there to help.
Artificial intelligence is one of them. Adobe estimates a 520% increase in AI traffic to retail sites year over year, with shoppers especially likely to rely on the technology in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. (2) According to CNET, there are multiple ways to use AI to help you find deals (7), including:
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Asking AI to find the cheapest purchase option for an item on your list.
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Asking AI to search for coupons for stores you’re shopping at or for items you’re buying.
There are also some apps that you can install to help you find bargains, both on your desktop and on your phone for in-person shopping. For online shoppers, for example, PayPal’s Honey automatically finds and applies coupon codes, tracks prices for you, compares prices on products you’re shopping for and allows you to earn rewards for purchases.
For those who prefer to shop in person, price comparison apps like Mycartsavings help you see what items cost at different stores so you don’t overpay.
These tools can make a big difference if you’re worried about how your holidays will be impacted by economic uncertainty.
How you can stay on budget this holiday season
These tools can definitely make an impact on how much you end up spending for the holidays, but it’s still important to set and stick to a budget — especially if you are hoping to spend less than last year.
You should set a limit on spending that allows you to cover all of your holiday costs in cash rather than borrowing for them. That way, you can avoid making your purchases more expensive with interest. Since the holidays aren’t here yet, you can start saving up now, if you haven’t already, so you have a little stockpile of cash ready to go when it comes time to buy.
Once you determine how much your spending limit will be, in total, decide how to allocate it among the people on your shopping list, as well as how much to spend on things like travel and entertainment. Having clear limits for each person on your list, as well as for other holiday expenditures, will help you from going overboard.
You can shop sales and use deal-finding tools to help you stick to your budget. And with adults in your family, you could consider doing a secret santa to avoid having to buy multiple gifts and stretching yourself too thin.
Thinking outside the box can help too. If you’re crafty, you could make gifts for some people, or make coupons to offer the gift of your time for things like babysitting or pet-sitting.
Sticking to a budget can help you avoid post-holiday regrets. And if you’ve decided to spend less this year, you’re not alone. And remember, the holidays are about much more than how much you open your wallet.
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Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
PwC (1); Adobe Analytics (2); Bain & Company (3); CNBC (4); Reuters (5); Wall Street Journal (6); CNET (7)
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Online spending is expected to slow this holiday season — how to save more if you aim to spend less this year
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