President Trump made a bold prediction about falling gas prices during his tour of Asia this week, while touting his “drill, baby, drill” slogan.
Must Read
- Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don’t have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here’s how
- Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAP
- Robert Kiyosaki says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year — and he begs investors not to miss its ‘explosion’
During a press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday covered by Fox News, Trump claimed that Americans are “going to see $2 gasoline pretty soon,” adding that the drop in price would prove “the equivalent of something bigger than a tax cut.” [1]
The national average price for regular gas hasn’t dropped under $2 a gallon since May 2020, according to government data. Still, Trump’s statement echoed one of his 2024 presidential campaign promises to do the same — a boast that was ultimately met with skepticism.
“Our figures are not even on the same planet as what the President-elect has promised,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for price-tracking app GasBuddy, told CNN at the time. [2]
That said, earlier this month the national average gas price fell below $3 a gallon for the first time since December 29, 2024, hitting $2.97 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. [3] Some states, like Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas, got as low as $2.45-$2.55.
The news prompted a victory lap from the White House, though many experts, including De Hann, largely credit the drop to increased production from OPEC+ nations.
“While some may be quick to assign political credit, the reality is that global supply dynamics — particularly OPEC’s production decisions — have been the primary force behind the relief drivers are seeing at the pump,” De Hann noted.
As of this writing, an oil refinery fire near Chicago bumped the average gas price back up over $3 to $3.038, according to AAA, though that’s still lower than the $3.134 per gallon average from a year ago. [4] Still, De Hann believes that prices will drop below $3 nationally again “ahead of Thanksgiving.”
Downward trending gas prices could mean significant relief for Americans struggling with the rising cost of living. But will they get low enough to fulfill Trump’s prediction?
Falling gas prices offer relief as energy prices rise
A September report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) offered a glimmer of hope for Americans when it comes to the impact of falling gas prices on their pocket books. It noted that, outside of the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, this year’s “gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income” could be the lowest in 20 years. That would work out to an average expenditure of “less than 2% of disposable income this year” — a drop from the previous decade’s 2.4% average.
That’s great news for Americans who’ll not only see savings at the pumps but, hopefully, as a ripple effect, across most goods and services as they no longer pay for the added cost of transportation fuel along the supply chain.
Read more: I’m almost 50 and have nothing saved for retirement — what now? Don’t panic. These 6 easy steps can help you turn things around
In fact, in 2015, when gas prices hit an average of $2.12 a gallon, JPMorgan found that “for every dollar less spent at the gas pump, individuals spent roughly 80 cents … on other things” including restaurants, electronics, entertainment and department stores. [5]
This time around, however, could prove a different story. That’s because Trump’s promise of an energy policy “defined by maximum production, maximum prosperity, and maximum power” could face maximum roadblocks.
September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month, shows overall energy prices jumped 2.8% year-over-year, with electricity up 5.1% and natural gas increasing a whopping 11.7%. Meanwhile, the EIA data shows that average residential electricity prices rose 10.5% between the time Trump took office and August of this year.
And energy prices could get worse if the non-partisan climate think tank Energy Innovation’s projections are correct. The group warned that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, passed earlier this year, could cut power generation while at the same time raising wholesale electricity prices by 74% over the next decade, bumping overall household energy expenditures up by $170. [6]
All of which would run counter to Trump’s promises of energy dominance and economic relief for Americans.
Can Trump get gas under $2 a gallon?
The question, then, remains as to whether Trump painted himself into a corner with his talk of gas dropping below $2 a gallon.
Industry experts, for one, don’t share the president’s optimism. Despite the lower cost of winter-blend gasoline, which AAA says could lead to a price drop of roughly $0.10 to $0.30 a gallon, [7] and what GasBuddy called the usual “falling seasonal demand” with oil prices “near multi-year lows,” the latter projects the national average price of gas “could dip into the $2.80s by year’s end.”
The EIA, meanwhile, foresees gas prices averaging “around $2.90” a gallon next year.
As for the question of whether “drill baby drill” could push those prices below $2 to fulfill Trump’s prediction, stats show that it’s not off to a great start. A Yale School of the Environment analysis noted that oil production is growing slower than it did under President Biden, while the number of oil rigs in the U.S. has actually fallen since Trump took office. [8]
EIA numbers show that, at the time of Trump’s inauguration in January, the U.S. had 582 oil and natural gas rigs in operation. By August, that number had dropped to 538. And while some, like Oil and Gas Watch, note that more oil is being drilled at fewer rigs, it comes at the cost of mass layoffs at major oil and gas companies as falling prices trim billions off of their profits. [9]
This comes as a new Deloitte report shows that 2026 U.S. oil and gas projects could face rising costs and even delays due to, ironically, Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policy. [10]
All of which could not only threaten the current price of gas, but leave Trump’s prediction of gas prices below $2 dissipating like car exhaust on the breeze.
What to read next
- Are you richer than you think? 5 clear signs you’re punching way above the average American’s wealth
- Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan ‘works every single time’ to kill debt, get rich — and ‘anyone’ can do it
- This tiny hot Costco item has skyrocketed 74% in price in under 2 years — but now the retail giant is restricting purchase. Here’s how to buy the coveted asset in bulk
- 22 US states are now in a recession or close to it — protect your savings with these 5 essential money moves ASAP
Join 200,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.
Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Fox News (1); CNN (2); GasBuddy (3); AAA (4); JPMorgan (5); Energy Innovation (6); AAA (7); Yale School of the Environment (8); Oil and Gas Watch (9); Deloitte (2)
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Trump says gas prices will drop to $2 ‘pretty soon’ and be ‘better than a tax cut’ — but is that realistic?
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.