The skies between Canada and the United States are a little quieter this spring. Flights once filled with vacationers bound for New York, snowbirds heading to Florida and entrepreneurs chasing deals in California are being cut back — over 20 routes in total. But behind the cancelled boarding passes and disappearing routes lies a deeper story: A political and cultural chill that’s changing how Canadians feel about their closest neighbour.
Tensions between Ottawa and Washington have escalated in recent months, driven by a mix of new trade friction, divergent policies on climate and defence and a wave of nationalist rhetoric south of the border. The so-called “elbow’s up” movement — a growing push among Canadians to spend and travel more locally in protest of perceived hostility or indifference from the U.S., is gaining traction. That sentiment is now showing up in airport departure boards.
According to Air Canada, bookings for U.S. routes are down roughly 10% year-over-year, a figure echoed by industry analysts across the sector. Meanwhile, capacity on Canada-U.S. routes has dropped by nearly 15% since January 2025, according to aviation data firm Cirium. Travel experts point to a combination of traveller fatigue, currency woes and political discontent.
A political chill takes flight
For decades, travel between Canada and the U.S. has been as natural as maple syrup on pancakes — routine, friendly and frequent. But in 2025, that relationship feels different.
Trade tensions have escalated. Washington’s new tariff rules, border security crackdowns and rhetoric surrounding “America First” policies and Canada becoming the 51st State, have strained the once-easy back-and-forth. Canadian consumers have taken notice, and many are quietly making different choices.
Some economists and social commentators are calling it the rise of the “elbows up” mindset, which began in earnest in recent month and is starting to show up in the data.
Air Canada reported a 10% drop in bookings to U.S. destinations this spring, attributing the decline in part to “traveller hesitancy” and weaker cross-border demand.
Industry analyst Cirium reported an even sharper drop: capacity on Canada-U.S. routes has declined nearly 15% since January 2025.
And while some of that downturn is seasonal, airline executives say this year is different. The decline in demand appears to be structural — not just cyclical.
Which flights are disappearing?
The list of suspended routes spans both major hubs and leisure-friendly destinations:
- Air Canada: Montreal-Detroit, Montreal-Minneapolis and Toronto-Indianapolis are all being cut, with more reductions expected this winter
- WestJet: Pulling out of Vancouver-Austin and reducing frequency on Calgary-New York JFK
- Flair Airlines: Axing seasonal and year-round flights to Phoenix, Nashville and Las Vegas
- Porter Airlines: Ending its newly launched Toronto-San Diego route in late June
The message from carriers is clear: They’re not going to keep flying half-empty planes into uncertain territory.
The financial fallout for travellers
For Canadian travellers, this shrinking sky has both practical and financial consequences.
With fewer flights available, airfares on remaining cross-border routes are climbing. Reduced competition and limited capacity are driving prices higher, particularly during peak travel periods.
At the same time, the weak Canadian dollar is making U.S. travel more expensive overall, from car rentals and hotel stays to travel insurance and airport fees.
Together, these rising costs and reduced options are forcing some would-be travellers to the U.S. to reconsider their plans — either by paying more, scaling back or choosing alternative destinations.
Where Canadians are turning instead
As southbound demand wanes, Canadians are increasingly looking at alternatives. Mexico, Europe and Caribbean destinations are seeing a modest uptick, but domestic travel is having a moment, too.
Tourism operators in B.C., the Maritimes and parts of Quebec are reporting stronger-than-expected bookings for summer 2025. That’s good news for local economies, and potentially a win for the Canadian dollar as more vacation spending stays within the country.
It’s also part of a broader pattern of values-driven decision-making. According to a March 2025 survey by Destination Canada, 42% of respondents said they were more likely to choose a Canadian vacation this year due to “political concerns and cross-border tensions.”
Smart travel tips in a shrinking flight market
With dozens of Canada-U.S. flight routes cut and fares climbing, travellers who do want to travel to our southern neighbour are facing fewer choices and higher costs. But that doesn’t mean your travel plans need to be grounded. Whether you’re booking a cross-border trip or rethinking your vacation strategy altogether, these tips can help you stay ahead of the curve, and keep your travel budget on track.
Book early, especially on key routes: With reduced options and rising demand, prices can spike fast. Secure your seat two to three months in advance for U.S. travel or risk paying a premium.
Be flexible with airports and dates: Consider flying out of alternative cities or shifting your trip by a day or two. Midweek departures are typically cheaper and less crowded.
Track the exchange rate: A weak Canadian dollar makes U.S. travel more expensive. Use tools such as XE.com or Revolut to monitor the rate and consider pre-loading USD if it improves.
Maximize rewards programs; Airline points and travel credit cards can help offset increased fares. Now’s a good time to review your loyalty accounts and use any accumulated points.
Reconsider domestic travel: With prices rising on U.S. routes, you might get more bang for your buck vacationing in Canada. Look at emerging hot spots like Prince Edward County, Tofino or the Gaspé Peninsula.
Final boarding call
What began as a few route cuts has grown into a clearer picture: Canada’s travel relationship with the U.S. is changing. It’s being shaped not just by economics, but by politics, identity and a shifting sense of what it means to cross the border.
While that may be inconvenient in the short term, it also presents an opportunity to rethink how we travel, where we spend and why it matters. Whether you’re a frequent flyer or a once-a-year snowbird, the message is clear: This year, your travel decisions carry more weight than ever.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
