On his 2,200-acre farm near Brownton, Minnesota, Ryan Mackenthun — whose great-great-grandfather founded the farm in 1887 — says the weather couldn’t be better. Clear October skies and stronger-than-usual yields have made for an ideal soybean harvest.
But while the outlook on his fields is bright, the same can’t be said for the broader economy. American soybean farmers like Mackenthun are caught in the crossfire of the U.S.– China trade war.
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Last year, China purchased more than $12.8 billion worth of U.S. soybeans [1]. But since May, it hasn’t bought a single bushel — a retaliatory move in the Trump administration’s ongoing trade war.
The Trump administration has floated $10 billion to $15 billion in aid to help struggling farmers, but the announcement remains on hold amid the government shutdown [2]. On Truth Social last week, Trump said he plans to meet with the Chinese president soon, adding that “soybeans will be a major topic of discussion [3].”
“It’s really nerve wracking,” Mackenthun told PBS News’ Megan Thompson [4]. “The looming tariffs over us have made it just difficult to predict anything.”
Betting on a rebound
Across Minnesota’s farm belt, soybean growers like Mackenthun are facing tough choices as global demand cools and prices slide. For years, Mackenthun relied on patience to boost his profits, storing his soybeans in bins and waiting for the market to rise. But this season, the outlook felt too uncertain. Instead of holding on, he sold his crop immediately to the local grain elevator, hoping to lock in a reasonable price before things got worse.
“So on that load I had 371 bushels of soybeans [and] got paid $9.13 a bushel. It’s a dollar below what I got for most of my beans last year,” he said.
According to Ed Usset, a grain market economist at the University of Minnesota, this is typically the peak season for U.S. soybean exports, with China as the main buyer. Over the past decade, the country has imported roughly a billion bushels of soybeans from the United States each year.
Mackenthun says the ongoing trade disputes feel like déjà vu from 2018, when tariffs sent soybean prices tumbling to about $8 a bushel. With fertilizer and equipment costs continuing to rise, he estimates he’s losing close to $90,000 on his soybean crop this season.
Fellow farmer Bob Lindeman is taking the opposite approach. While Mackenthun chose to sell early, Lindeman is holding on to most of his harvest, betting that prices will bounce back once tensions ease and global trade steadies.
“It’s for sure a risk. You know, putting them in the market could go down. I’m hoping that we can get some of these tariffs taken care of,” Lindeman told PBS News.
With limited storage on his own property, Lindeman is paying a neighbor to hold his soybeans, another added cost in a year when every dollar counts. If the market doesn’t rebound soon, he says he may have to rely on a federal loan for the first time in more than ten years just to keep his operation running.
Read more: How much cash do you plan to keep on hand after you retire? Here are 3 of the biggest reasons you’ll need a substantial stash of savings in retirement
A market stuck in limbo
While the two farmers are taking different approaches, experts say neither option comes without risk. Usset says farmers are operating under immense uncertainty.
“Is this trade war going to be resolved in the next month, six months, one year?” he said. Your guess is as good as mine.”
The Trump administration has floated the idea of using tariff revenue to support farmers, but producers say what they really need is stability, not short-term aid. Many want a lasting solution that protects their markets and allows prices to recover naturally. For now, much of China’s soybean business has shifted to South America, similar to what happened during the last trade war [5]. That shift has left U.S. farmers in limbo, watching a once-reliable market slip further away.
Still, some hope remains. Producers are looking inward, aiming to sell more soy at home and betting on new demand from biodiesel made with American crops. For now, they’re turning their combines toward the cornfields, waiting to see if the winds — and the markets — will change.
“We need profitability, we need certainty,” Mackenthun said. “We need a vision of a future, of where farming will be someday.”
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Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Investigates Midwest (1); Wisconsin Public Radio 2); Truth Social (3); PBS News (4); Reuters (5)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.