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These days, gauging the health of the economy is almost like trying to gauge the health of Schrödinger’s cat.
Depending on who you talk to, the economy might be on the upswing or trending downward; it’s showing promise but also headed for collapse.
Take, for example, the fact that after months of dismal jobs numbers and recession predictions, a recent White House press release touted the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ revision of second quarter GDP numbers, claiming “explosive growth” for the economy — along with positive reactions from various financial experts.
The revision showed a GDP increase of 3.8% from April through June of this year, which was previously reported as 3.3%. That figure was a big boost from -0.6% GDP growth in the first quarter of the year, and one of the fastest paces for GDP growth since the third quarter of 2023.
The GDP growth was driven by a slowing of imports and a greater increase in consumer spending than previously reported, led by transportation, financial and insurance services.
As such, the White House press release claimed that this was all part of “America’s economic resurgence” and “the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness.”
But is the economy really surging back the way the White House suggests?
What’s really going on with the economy?
Part of the problem in establishing a consensus on how the economy’s doing is that the traditional indicators of a healthy economy are telling a conflicting story. GDP and consumer spending, for example, are up, while employment estimates for September show the U.S. continues to bleed jobs.
Data from ADP — a global human resources and payroll services software — is used in lieu of the usual U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers, as they are currently unavailable during the government shutdown. ADP suggests the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September (1).
Meanwhile, August’s dismal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed the economy added just 22,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate hit a near-four-year high of 4.3%. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, cut interest rates — but the effects of tariffs and inflation are still impacting Americans’ pocketbooks.
One explanation for the mixed economic signals is that rising consumer spending is only driven by a small percentage of the highest-income earners.
Research by Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, showed earlier in the year (2) and again recently (3) that the top 10% of earners in the country are responsible for nearly 50% of all consumer spending. The data also show that the bottom 80% — those making under $175,000 a year — are merely keeping pace with inflation (4). He added that if those high-earners “turn more cautious” about spending, “the economy has a big problem.”
How to prepare for turbulent economic times ahead
Just like plenty of economic experts out there, the average American also doesn’t have much of a rosy outlook for the economy ahead.
A Fannie Mae survey from September found that 67% of consumers feel the American economy is “on the wrong track,” up 3 points from August.
Meanwhile, earlier this month, Pew Research Center reported that 74% of U.S. adults described the economy as either “fair/poor”, while just 26% said it was “excellent/good” (5).
The Pew survey added that 42% of Americans blamed “rising prices and personal expenses” for their negative view of the economy. As well, 53% said that Trump’s policies have made the economy worse, as opposed to 24% who said they’ve improved it. And 46% said that they expect the economy to get worse in a year, while only 29% believe it will be better.
For those struggling now, or anticipating troubling economic times ahead, experts agree on a number of simple things you can do to both help navigate a rough economy and prepare for possible worse conditions — including a recession — down the line.
Diversify with alternative assets
When it comes to investing, some advisors even say that the traditional 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds should be revised to 50/30/20, with the final 20% being made up of alternative assets. That’s because alternative assets can provide some additional resilience against stock market volatility.
For instance, gold is often seen as an alternative asset that offers greater investment stability when stocks are shaky. The precious metal is also on a historic bull run, with the spot price breaching $4,350 per ounce in late October. (6)
With a gold IRA through Thor Metals, you can invest directly in physical precious metals, like gold, rather than stocks and bonds.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it an attractive option for those looking to hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainties.
To learn more, you can get a free information guide that includes details on how to get up to $20,000 in free metals on qualifying purchases.
Another popular alternative asset is real estate. But you don’t have to buy property outright to benefit from the real estate market.
One option is tapping into this market by investing in shares of vacation homes or rental properties through Arrived.
Backed by world-class investors, including Jeff Bezos, Arrived enables you to invest in shares of vacation and rental properties, earning a passive income stream without any of the extra work involved with being a landlord of your own rental property.
Start by browsing through their selection of vetted properties, each picked for its potential appreciation and income generation. Once you choose a property, you can start investing with as little as $100, potentially earning quarterly dividends too.
If investing in real estate through rentals doesn’t appeal to you, you might consider commercial real estate. Historically, direct access to the $22.5 trillion commercial real estate sector was limited to a select group of elite investors — until now.
First National Realty Partners (FNRP) allows accredited investors to diversify their portfolio through grocery-anchored commercial properties, without taking on the responsibilities of being a landlord.
With a minimum investment of $50,000, investors can own a share of properties leased by national brands like Whole Foods, Kroger and Walmart, which provide essential goods to their communities. Thanks to triple net leases, accredited investors are able to invest in these properties without worrying about tenant costs cutting into their potential returns.
Simply answer a few questions — including how much you would like to invest — to start browsing their full list of available properties.
Have a plan in place
Beyond investing, Equifax advises paying down debt as much as possible, especially when it comes to mortgages and car payments (7). They also say that updating your resume and reconnecting with professional contacts doesn’t hurt, in the event that you find yourself out of work.
It’s also worth considering working with a qualified financial advisor. They can help you figure out the best path forward for your money goals, in light of the rapidly evolving economic landscape.
The professional financial advisors with Range offer white-glove financial services to high-income households.
For those with savings at or above that number, one of the biggest financial pain points in working with an advisor can be asset under management (AUM) fees. These fees mean that portfolio managers take a percentage of the value of your managed assets, typically between 0.5% and 2% — so their fees will increase alongside your wealth.
That’s where Range differs. Range offers 0% AUM fees for advisory services and a flat-fee structure so that you can preserve more of your wealth. They also offer an all-in-one solution for everything from alternative asset management to taxes — all informed by modern AI solutions and backed by a team of certified financial professionals.
And the best part? You can book a complimentary demo to see if Range can meet your comprehensive financial needs.
If your net worth is below the thresholds required to work with Range, there are other advisors out there for your financial circumstances, too.
Finding a financial advisor that suits your specific needs and financial goals is simple with Vanguard.
Vanguard’s hybrid advisory system combines advice from professional advisers and automated portfolio management to make sure your investments are working to achieve your financial goals
With a minimum portfolio size of $50,000, this service is best for clients who already have a nest egg built and would like to try to grow their wealth with a variety of different investments. All you have to do is set up a consultation with a Vanguard advisor and they will help you set a tailored plan and stick to it.
Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
CNN (1); Wall Street Journal (2); Bloomberg (3); @Markzandi /X (4); Gold Price (5); ; Fidelity (6); Equifax (7)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.