With talk of trade wars, fear of stagflation and slashes to Social Security staffing, you might be justifiably concerned about your retirement savings.
Following the Fed’s latest policy meeting, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference that “recent indications … point to a moderation in consumer spending” as “surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook.” He added that “some near-term measures of inflation expectations have recently moved up,” with tariffs being a driving factor.
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While Powell believes there’s a lot of uncertainty around the economic outlook, it’s clear that many Americans, policy and economic experts, and even the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — the policy-making wing of the Federal Reserve System — are concerned about the near-term effects of President Trump’s economic policies.
The FOMC’s most recent Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) downgraded GDP growth to 1.7% this year — from a projection of 2.1% in December — and increased the projection for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.8% from 2.5% in December (PCE inflation is the measure used to set the Fed’s target inflation rate, which is currently 2%).
Economists are warning of stagflation
Thanks to Trump’s aggressive economic policies, there’s now fear of stagflation — simultaneous slow economic growth and elevated inflation — hitting the U.S. economy.
“The Federal Reserve’s projections confirm what millions of Americans are already thinking: President Trump is steering our economy toward disaster,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at non-profit think tank Groundwork Collaborative, in response to the latest Fed projections.
“Launching chaotic trade wars with our allies and gutting Social Security, Medicaid and other vital programs in order to fund tax breaks for his billionaire donors isn’t making life more affordable for working-class families,” added Jacquez. “It is, however, a perfect recipe for stagflation.”
While other economists and industry-watchers are more guarded in their assessments, many agree that Trump’s policies could lead to a period of stagflation.
Richard Clarida — global economic advisor at Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) and former Federal Reserve vice-chairman — told Bloomberg that there’s “already at least a whiff of stagflation right now” in the U.S.
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Social Security job cuts are disrupting service
At the same time — amid policy uncertainty and the threat of stagflation — Americans are contending with the gutting of the Social Security Administration (SSA) by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
While the White House has said there won’t be any cuts to Social Security and Medicare benefits, the SSA has already fired 7,000 employees and is planning to lay off thousands more — cuts that could lead to “system collapse and interruption of benefits,” Martin O’Malley, former commissioner of the SSA, shared with CNBC.
Some politicians believe the Trump administration is “setting up the SSA for failure” so that it can justify privatizing the agency.
A reduction or disruption of Social Security benefits would create hardship for most retirees. Nearly 90% of Americans 65 and over receive benefits, which account for about 31% of their income.
Stagflation means that higher prices could make it harder to stretch your savings, while a slower economy could also reduce the value of your nest egg. Whether you’re retired or about to retire, here are steps you can take to protect your retirement.
Three steps to take if you’re retired
- Reduce expenses: Create a new retirement budget with a focus on reducing large expenses. You may even want to consider downsizing your home or relocating to a less expensive location.
- Revisit your financial plan: Talk to your financial advisor to make sure you’re getting the most out of your portfolio, such as withdrawing your savings in the most tax-efficient manner.
- Increase your income: If you’re stretched thin, you may want to consider working part-time, starting a home-based business or selling assets such as second cars or homes.
Three steps to take if you’re saving for retirement
- Prepare for shocks: Build up your emergency fund, pay down debt and review your insurance coverages — particularly if you work for a government agency that may be subject to downsizing, or an industry that could be negatively impacted by tariffs.
- Ramp up your savings: Now is the time to ramp up the amount you’re putting away for retirement (if you can). Max out employer contributions to your 401(k) and, if you’re 50+, take advantage of top-up provisions for your retirement accounts. You may find it useful to create a budget and reduce expenses to find those extra savings.
- Revisit your investments: Talk to your financial advisor about how to get the most out of your investments. If you’re a long way from retirement, a market sell-off may provide opportunities — but if you’re going to retire imminently, you may want to move into more conservative investments to avoid taking early retirement withdrawals during a market downturn.
Starting to plan sooner rather than later can help you weather any uncertainty ahead.
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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
