Florida has long been a magnet for Americans looking for a better life. Low taxes, affordable housing, a low cost of living and pleasant winter weather have made it a popular move — and not just for retirees.
Young people seeking economic opportunities have come in search of jobs in technology, health care and tourism — and stay for the laid-back lifestyle and entrepreneurial atmosphere.
But now, the number of Americans moving to the state has slowed.
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And one hot spot has been hit particularly hard.
A slowdown in domestic immigration
Although Florida’s population continues to grow, fueled by international immigration, net migration from within the U.S. has fallen sharply.
Miami and Fort Lauderdale, which had net outflows in 2023, saw these outflows increase while Orlando saw net domestic migration drop from 16,357 new residents in 2023 to just 779 in 2024.
But the greatest year-over-year drop in migration was seen in a city that US News once ranked as the fourth best place to retire in the U.S. and was rated among the top 10 American cities to move to by both millennials and Gen Z.
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In 2024, Tampa saw its domestic immigration drop to 10,544 new residents from 34,920 in 2023, a decline of 70% — and “the biggest slowdown in domestic migration of the 50 most populous U.S. metros,” according to Redfin, which based its analysis on U.S. Census Bureau data.
Redfin found that migration to the Sun Belt in general is declining, citing the rising cost of living in the area, the prevalence of natural disasters and the associated costs of insurance, the decline of remote work, the high cost of moving and economic uncertainty.
Here are 3 reasons why fewer Americans are moving to Tampa.
1. Housing has become more expensive
In past years Tampa has offered an affordable housing alternative to more expensive cities such as San Francisco and New York, but this gap is closing. Housing prices in Tampa have been outpacing the national average for close to a decade and have risen substantially faster since the start of the pandemic.
In February 2020, the median home price in Tampa was $264,995 — about 27% that of New York City.
By February of this year, the median price sat at $449,950 after peaking at $499,900 in June 2024.
That means the cost of living in Tampa is now higher than cities such as Minneapolis and Indianapolis, making a move less appealing than it once was.
2. Natural disasters
There’s also evidence that the frequency of major natural disasters is increasing in the U.S. In 2024, the greater Tampa Bay region was hit by Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton over a span of just 65 days.
Major storms can affect the cost of home and flood insurance — and even the ability to obtain it.
Although reforms to Florida’s insurance industry in 2023 have led to slower increases in insurance premiums, they still rose 43% from January 2018 to December 2023.
This makes it hard for many Floridians to find affordable insurance, with non-renewals by insurance companies on the rise and some insurance companies exiting the market altogether. As a result, some homeowners are under-insuring their properties due to the cost.
3. Return-to-office policies
A return to the office is another factor driving the decline in immigration. During the height of the pandemic, many people left coastal job centers such as New York and San Francisco to work remotely from lower-cost cities with a better lifestyle. Now, many employers are instituting a return to the office, meaning fewer people can move to places like Tampa.
Redfin suggests that high home prices and mortgage rates have kept people from moving in general across the U.S.
It’s also likely that the uncertain economic environment is putting major decisions on hold — after all, it’s difficult to relocate, buy a new house and commit to a new job when there’s so much uncertainty around employment, inflation and interest rates.
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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
