If you’ve found yourself scrolling resale sites or thinking twice before job-hopping, you’re not alone.
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There’s concern that the government shutdown in Washington will tip the country into a recession, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has said nearly half the states are in a recession already.
The Washington Post recently shared that even if the U.S. economy isn’t technically in a recession — that is decided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) — there are some warning signs of a slowdown. [1]
Here are the six signs experts say to watch out for, and what you can do to protect your finances if the economy keeps cooling.
1. Cardboard box production is shrinking
It’s a case of thinking “inside” the box, instead of outside the box. When fewer cardboard boxes are being made, it may mean fewer goods are expected to move through supply chains and that less demand is forecasted for the future.
According to the American Forest & Paper Association, containerboard production fell about 5% in the second quarter year over year, and box-makers have reportedly closed several mills this year.
According to The Post, analysts say pandemic-era e-commerce booms have faded, international shipping is soft, and consumers are cutting back spending as credit costs bite.
2. Hamburger Helper is booming
When it comes to meals, Americans are reaching for cheap comfort foods to stretch their dollars further. Eagle Foods says Hamburger Helper sales were up 14.5% year over year in August.
“Hamburger Helper is undoubtedly experiencing a blockbuster resurgence that, in many ways, resembles the runaway success the brand experienced when it first hit store shelves more than a half-century ago,” said Mala Wiedemann, executive vice president of marketing and R&D at Eagle Foods.
“Just as in 1971, the brand has become a destination for consumers seeking convenience, bold flavor and affordability amidst high inflation, rising beef prices, unemployment concerns and increasing demands on multi-earner households.”
Inflation famously spiked in the 1970s, and for all of 2025, prices for eggs, beef and veal, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages are predicted to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth, according to the USDA.
This trend isn’t just for nostalgia’s sake. A recent ABC News report says “struggle meals” have been trending online. [2] A NielsenIQ report from January found that 87% of shoppers had changed their shopping habits to deal with the rising costs, which includes shifting to value-focused retailers, opting for private-label products, taking advantage of promotions, and purchasing items in bulk. [3]
Read more: I’m almost 50 and have nothing saved for retirement — what now? Don’t panic. These 6 easy steps can help you turn things around
3. Big truck sales are slowing down
Heavy-duty truck sales fell 14.6% year over year in August, according to ACT Research data cited by The Post.
It’s something to keep an eye on because freight truck volumes are linked to industrial activity. In the past, big dips in big truck orders have come before economic slowdowns. Simply put, fewer trucks may mean fewer goods being shipped.
Some of the drop in heavy-duty truck sales may be because of overcapacity built up after the pandemic-era spending boom, Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, told The Post.
Adding to the industry’s troubles, heavy trucks are now facing a new headwind after President Donald Trump announced last month a 25% tariff on imported models.
4. Thrift stores are busy
Along with food and trucks, fashion can also be a recession indicator. According to Placer.ai, visits to thrift shops are up nearly 40% compared with 2019, and resale platforms are “gaining traction.” [4]
“This visit growth advantage reflects a mix of factors, including heightened economic pressures and sustainability concerns,” said Placer.ai. “Rising household incomes among thrift shoppers and increasing shares of rural and suburban shoppers further underscore secondhand shopping’s broadening appeal.”
Along with being sustainable, buying secondhand is cheaper than buying new, and the numbers highlight that more Americans are prioritizing savings over spending.
One of the biggest online resale platforms, ThredUp, said in March that “tariffs are expected to provide a tailwind to the secondhand market as shoppers prioritize affordability and retailers seek stability.”
The company reported record quarterly revenue of $77.7 million in Q2 2025, representing an increase of 16% year-over-year.
5. Job-hopping has stalled
The rate of Americans quitting their jobs has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and 63% now say it’s a bad time to find a quality job, according to a recent Washington Post–Ipsos poll. [5]
According to the Economic Policy Institute analysis of the August jobs report, job openings have been holding steady since July, but both hires and quits edged lower, while layoffs and discharges stayed about the same. [6] The low rate of hiring is similar to that right after the Great Recession.
“Job-switching is so fundamentally important to an economy’s health,” Allison Shrivastava, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, told The Post. “You really do need churn: That’s the best way for workers to get better wages and to move labor where it needs to go. Right now we’re in a stagnant place where people can’t progress in their careers.”
6. Home equity loans are up, but new building is down
With mortgage rates still hovering around 6%, homeowners are tapping existing equity and renovating instead of moving, or consolidating debt. TransUnion data shows home equity loan originations jumped 12% early this year. Home values have gone up, and people are borrowing against their biggest asset. [7]
According to The Post, new residential building permits were down 11% in August year over year, which is another warning sign for a possible recession.
Zandi posted on social media recently, “Building permits have been identified as the most critical economic variable for predicting U.S. recessions…And while permits had been holding up reasonably well…inventories of unsold homes are now high and on the rise. In response, builders are pulling back, and permits have started to slump. They are now as low as they’ve been since the pandemic shutdowns.” [8]
So while homeowners may feel confident enough to borrow, builders are tapping the brakes, and it’s yet another sign of a cooling cycle.
What the signs mean — and what you can do
While consumer spending still looks healthy on the surface experts have pointed out that it’s the wealthy that are driving it. According to Moody Analytics, the top 10% of Americans now account for nearly half of all spending, up from about 35% in the early 1990s. [9]
The signs are all there that average Americans are tightening their belt. Take a look at your own life: Have your habits changed, too? If so, you’re already part of the shift that the numbers are only starting to show.
Here’s how you can protect your wallet:
- Reassess your spending: Start trimming nonessential costs before you have so that you can build flexibility now.
- Revisit your liquidity buffer: If you don’t already have one, aim to build up three to six months of cash or short-term savings. If the next few quarters get rocky, it’ll buy you some breathing room.
- Cut down dependency on credit or home equity: Think of these as safety nets, not lifelines. With interest rates high, debt paydown is the best “investment” you can make right now.
- Diversify income: Consider side gigs or freelance work that you can scale up if needed. In a tight job market, having options is key.
- Review your portfolio: Make sure it’s balanced and diversified, favor quality over yield-chasing, and consider modest inflation hedges such as Treasury inflation-protected securities or dividend-paying stocks.
The economy may not be in total collapse, but the warning signs are flashing. Before the official data catches up, everyday indicators like boxes, “struggle meals” and thrift stores might be hinting at what’s to come, so trim expenses and boost savings now before the slowdown hits harder.
What to read next
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Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
The Washington Post (1); ABC News 2); NielsenIQ (3); Placer.ai (4; Washington Post–Ipsos (5); The Economic Policy Institute (6); TransUnion (7; @Markzandi/X.com(8); Moody’s Analytics (9
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: We’re not currently in a recession — but experts say these 6 warning signs are flashing. Are you seeing them?
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