On Nov. 14, the White House announced that “given the substantial progress in reciprocal trade negotiations … President Trump has now determined that it is necessary and appropriate to further modify the scope of the reciprocal tariffs. Specifically, certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States” (1).
This will come as welcome news to Americans who have continued to suffer surging prices at the grocery store. The price index for food and beverages has risen significantly since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on countries that produce beef, coffee and other food staples (2). In August food prices at grocery stores for home consumption rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the fastest monthly change for groceries since 2022 (3).
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The administration has been under pressure to do something about continuing food price inflation, which Trump said he would solve by bringing grocery prices “tumbling down” back when he was a candidate (4). Though Trump’s tariffs on Brazil, Mexico and other producers of imported foods aren’t the only reason prices at the grocery store have continued to rise, it is one lever he can pull to try and stem the tide.
What food items might see price stabilization?
The list of exempted food items include many staples on Americans’ tables:
- Coffee and tea
- Tropical fruits and fruit juices
- Cocoa and spices
- Bananas, oranges, and tomatoes
- Beef
Tariffs on imported liquors including scotch, wine and cognac and imported beer will remain, however (5). Tomatoes from Mexico were not included in the exemption and are still subject to a 17% tariff negotiated in July.
The effect of this move on food prices will vary based on several factors. Daniel A. Sumner, a professor of economics at UC Davis specializing in agricultural economics, says imported products like bananas that don’t require a lot of processing are most likely to see the biggest price declines (6).
Many food items may not see prices come down to where they were a year ago, or even six months ago, because reducing inflation is not the same thing as reducing prices. Inflation is a rate of growth: Even if it drops to zero, the price you’re paying today will continue to be the price going forward.
Many other food items that require processing have other tariff costs baked into their prices. For example, canned fruits and vegetables are still affected by aluminum tariffs that increase the price of the cans, and therefore the final product. And remaining tariffs on the goods needed to bring the food to your local store, like automobile parts for trucks, mean inflation could continue (7).
Though increases in the price of eggs, which was a major talking point in 2024, has moderated, but steak and ground beef have seen eye-watering price increases in 2025, including a 12.9% increase over the past year for ground beef, 16.6% for uncooked steaks and a whopping 18.4% for uncooked beef roasts since 2024 (8).
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Voters blame Trump for the continuing rise in food costs
The Trump administration’s move to lower select food tariffs by executive order comes as no surprise. According to a new poll by Navigator, 69% of Americans in battleground states believe tariffs have increased costs, and half of Americans believe the worst of cost increases are yet to come.
Groceries are by far the most important price point that persuadable voters watch. In swing states, 43% of voters blame Trump personally for tariffs and 35% blame Trump and the Republican-led Congress (9). Without clear initiative and successes in bringing grocery prices down, this suggests continued price inflation could spell disaster for Trump’s party in the 2026 midterm elections.
Until voters get their say on Trump’s policies in the midterm elections next year, the rollback of food tariffs could serve as an early test of whether the president can tame grocery inflation.
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Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
The White House (1); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2); Bureau of Labor Statistics (3); @atrupar (4); The Beef Site (5); Investopedia (6); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (7); Bureau of Labor Statistics (8); Navigator (9)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.