The Bank of Canada hit pause again — holding the overnight rate at 2.75% on July 30, 2025 — leaving Canadians stuck in a high-cost limbo. For the second consecutive decision, the central bank opted to wait, as core inflation remains stubborn and U.S. tariff threats add more uncertainty to Canada’s economic outlook.
While some were hoping for relief, Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear: “We need more data before making our next move.” Translation? Borrowers, homeowners, and small business owners must brace for a longer haul — where every dollar counts and every financial decision matters.
The good news? A rate hold means stable borrowing costs for now. The bad news? That stability is set against a backdrop of weak consumer confidence, slowing growth, and simmering global trade risks. In this climate, smart money management isn’t optional — it’s essential.
Here’s who gains and who loses with the latest BoC rate pause and how all Canadians can react this wait-and-see approach.
Winners: Who benefits from recent BoC rate hold?
Bird’s Eye View: Borrowers (for now) and flexible investors
Despite the Bank of Canada continuing to hold the overnight rate at 2.75%, borrowers — especially those with variable-rate debt — continue to benefit from the cumulative effect of previous cuts. For Canadians with adjustable mortgages, lines of credit, and personal loans, current borrowing costs remain low compared to early 2024 levels. This has helped many households manage payments or refinance to improve cash flow.
However, the benefits may be short-lived. With economic growth expected to stall in the second quarter and inflation predicted to stay near its 2% target over the medium term, the environment could shift rapidly if tariffs escalate.
Investors with diversified or inflation-sensitive portfolios — including real assets or short-term bonds — may also find opportunities amid volatility. In scenario one, where tariffs are rolled back, the BoC expects modest economic recovery and a return to 2% inflation, which could stabilize markets. Fixed-income investors may benefit as expectations shift toward possible rate cuts in late 2025. Turns out the markets are already pricing in potential rate cuts by the fall, assuming inflation cools and trade conditions stabilize.
Pro Tip: If you’re carrying debt, this is a window to lock in lower rates. But be cautious — a reversal is possible if inflation climbs again under worsening global trade conditions. Compare personal loan options to find the lowest rate. Investors may want to explore laddered bond ETFs or dividend-paying stocks in defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, which can provide yield stability in uncertain environments.
Losers: Who is hurt by lower interest rates?
Bird’s Eye View: Exporters, savers and businesses facing uncertainty
The OECD forecasts Canada’s GDP growth to slow to 1.2% in 2025, down from 2.1% in 2024, while employment growth is expected to remain flat, particularly in construction and manufacturing sectors — much of this slow growth is due to uncertain global situations, including the ongoing trade tariff talks.
As a result, exporters remain in a vulnerable state, as do businesses who rely upon cross-border products and services. With economic uncertainty comes another set of hurdles for businesses. As a result, small and mid-sized firms face challenges from reduced consumer demand, weakened business investment and policy unpredictability. The workplace impact means hiring freezes, cutbacks and delays in expansion plans are trends that threaten to continue in the second half of 2025.
Savers are also being squeezed. With inflation temporarily dipping and interest rates still below pre-2024 levels, the real returns on fixed-income investments like GICs and high-interest savings accounts remain modest. In the event of a prolonged recession and rising inflation (as in scenario two, where inflation spikes to 3.5% by mid-2026), the purchasing power of these savings could erode even further.
Pro Tip: Diversify savings vehicles and keep an eye on inflation-indexed products. Business owners should consider scenario planning to navigate potential downturns. Compare high-interest savings accounts and set up an easily accessible account to park cash.
Why interest rates change: Balancing growth and inflation
The BoC uses interest rate adjustments to influence economic activity and inflation. Headline Core Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.7% in April, largely due to the elimination of the federal carbon tax. But core inflation and inflation expectations remain elevated — a key reason the BoC is holding off further cuts.
However, this balancing act isn’t without risks. Economists like Frances Donald, chief economist at RBC, warn that external challenges, including U.S. tariffs and global trade uncertainty, could still pressure Canada’s economy, making further rate cuts a double-edged sword.
James Orlando, an economist with TD, emphasizes the cautious nature of the BoC’s approach: “Given where interest rates are in Canada, we think the BoC can go slower with its cuts.” This careful strategy reflects the complexity of stimulating growth while avoiding excess borrowing.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about inflation reports and economic forecasts to anticipate future rate changes.
First-time homebuyers: Navigating rate changes
For first-time homebuyers, lower rates can help improve affordability, but not dramatically in high-cost housing markets. While affordability hasn’t worsened, this pause signals that rate relief for mortgage holders may not come as quickly as hoped. Fixed-rate mortgages may still offer an opportunity for buyers to secure slightly better terms if cuts resume in the second half of the year.
Thielmann advises buyers to avoid trying to “time the market” based on minor rate changes. Instead, focus on what you can afford today and ensure your financial plan includes a buffer for potential future rate increases — just in case.
Tools like Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) are invaluable for saving toward a down payment. These accounts allow Canadians to grow their savings tax-free, making them an attractive option for young buyers seeking to navigate high housing costs.
Another great option is the First-Time Home Savers Account (FHSA). Structured in a similar fashion to the TFSA, an FHSA lets you save for a home and avoid paying tax on earnings generated in the account. This can mean more money in the bank for your down payment.
Pro Tip: Open a TFSA or FHSA to maximize tax-free growth and expedite your savings goals.
Broader implications: Stimulating growth or exacerbating debt?
While rate cuts that predated June’s pause have encouraged spending and investment, they also carry risks. The availability of cheap credit may lead to over-leveraging, particularly as Canadians already carry high levels of household debt. Increased reliance on credit could create financial vulnerabilities if rates rise again or if inflation accelerates — adding extra pressure to household budgets.
Still, the rate cuts will help. Tiago Figueiredo of Desjardins predicts the rate cuts will provide a cushion for Canadians facing mortgage renewals, alleviating some of the financial pressure from elevated borrowing costs. This is good news given that an estimated 45% of Canadian mortgage holders will renew in 2025 or 2026, facing payment increases of $400 to $1,000 per month depending on the mortgage size and term.
Pro Tip: Maintain a healthy debt-to-income ratio and focus on paying down high-interest debt to protect against future rate increases.
6 practical tips for adapting to rate changes
To help, here are six tips to help you adapt to rate changes:
- Adjusting your financial strategy to align with changing rates.
- Diversify your investment portfolio to mitigate risk and ensure your savings continue to grow.
- Revisit your budget to account for potential changes in borrowing or savings rates.
- Consult a financial advisor to get tailored advice for navigating these shifts.
- Explore flexible savings accounts, particularly accounts that offer cash back or rebates.
- Consider refinancing fixed-rate debts for greater financial resilience.
Bottom line
Interest rate changes create both opportunities and challenges for Canadians. The BoC’s July decision reflects their ongoing wait-and-see approach. Canadians should expect limited rate movement in the short term, with the Bank watching inflation trends and trade policy before making its next move.
Understanding these dynamics and proactively managing your finances can help you navigate rate shifts effectively. As the Bank of Canada continues to balance inflation and growth, staying informed and adaptable will remain key to financial success in 2025 and beyond.
— with files from David Saric
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.