New York, USA, November 12th, 2026, NewsDirect
Fall 2026 Consumer Sentiment Report Highlights an Uneven Recovery as Higher-Income Households Open Their Wallets Heading into the Holidays
- Consumer spending intent has climbed to its highest level since Fall 2023, but the recovery is uneven: higher-income households have resumed their climb, while lower-income households are lifting spending intent by saving less, not by expecting to earn more.
- Consumers are planning a leaner holiday season overall. Higher-income households plan to spend more (+18% net), led by holiday meals and treats, travel and gifts for others, while lower-income households plan to cut back in every holiday category (-26% net).
- Value-seeking and selective trading up are rising together. Lower-priced grocers and store brands have reached experience parity for roughly 70% of shoppers, even as more consumers trade up where quality is visible, rebuild baskets around protein and nutrition, and let AI shape their final purchase decisions.
Global professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal’s Consumer and Retail Group (A&M CRG) has released its Fall 2026 Consumer Sentiment Survey, the latest chapter in its bi-annual report that tracks U.S. consumer behavior in response to ongoing economic conditions. Based on a nationally representative survey of over 2,000 adults, this fall’s edition reveals that consumers are opening their wallets again, but selectively, with health top of mind and AI increasingly in the loop. Higher-income households carry nearly all the momentum.
“Higher-income households are once again turning stronger earnings expectations into spending, and overall spending intent is at its highest level in three years,” said Chad Lusk, Managing Director at A&M’s Consumer and Retail Group. “But the headline number hides two very different consumers. Lower-income households are pulling back a bit less, but they are doing it by giving up savings to keep up with essentials like groceries and utilities, not because they expect to earn more. That is a far less stable foundation heading into the holidays.”
The divide is most visible in holiday plans. Total holiday spending intent has turned negative (-14% net-more, down from roughly -3% last fall). Higher-income households are putting their stronger earnings expectations toward the season, led by holiday meals and treats (+21%) and travel (+17%). Lower-income households are cutting back in every category, only slightly less on gifts for others (-16%) than on gifts for themselves (-34%), travel (-36%) and decorations (-43%). Promotions remain central to planning, with about half of consumers waiting for events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, yet 37% would buy a desired gift immediately if it were running low in stock, which suggests that in-stock position on key items may matter as much as price this season.
The study found that:
- Overall spending intent reached +4% net-more, the highest level since Fall 2023. Higher-income households’ expectations to earn more jumped 10 points to 63% and to spend more rose 7 points to 25%, while lower-income households’ intent to save more fell 6 points to 22%, the widest savings gap between income groups since Fall 2023.
- Grocery leads the recovery, with net-more spending intent doubling to +14%. Higher-income households plan to spend more in nine of twelve categories, while lower-income households remain net-negative in every category except grocery (+7%) and pet supplies (flat), as essential costs absorb budget that might otherwise go to discretionary purchases.
- The shift to lower-priced grocers is sticking, and store brands are strengthening. 26% of consumers planning to spend less on groceries will keep their brands but switch to a less expensive store, up from 16% in Fall 2025, as roughly seven in ten shoppers now rate lower-priced grocers at parity with traditional supermarkets on every dimension measured. 84% say store brands are more affordable than national brands, 69% rate their quality as good as or better, 70% say they are consistently on shelf, and 71% say they meet their dietary or lifestyle needs, up from 66% a year ago.
- Wellness is rewriting the basket. 22% of respondents report currently taking a GLP-1 medication (above national estimates of individual use, so best read directionally), up from 18% in the spring, and another 21% are considering one. Because users are eating less, they are rebuilding their baskets around protein and nutrition, and the broader population is following: 46% of consumers now choose snacks for beneficial ingredients such as protein and fiber, up from 37%, and protein is the top benefit consumers will pay more for (43%). Retailers have an opening: 60% of users have already bought “GLP-1 friendly” products, but 31% of users aged 45 and over have never seen them.
- Skepticism about AI is holding steady, but reliance is rising. 43% of consumers now let AI influence their final purchase decision at least sometimes, up from 35% in the spring, even as concerns about privacy (34%) and misinformation (33%) are essentially flat. Adoption is sharply divided by age (60% of consumers under 45 versus 27% of those 45 and older), and comparing prices and value is the most common use.
- Stores still lead online, but a blended journey has caught up. The in-store lead over online for the final purchase narrowed from 26 points in the spring to 15, and a mix of both is now as common as buying mostly in-store (39% vs. 38%). The in-store advantage is concentrated among consumers 45 and older (+28 points versus +4 for under-45s), and 35% of consumers say their ideal experience is a seamless mix of online and in-store.
“The consumer we’re seeing this fall trades down where products are interchangeable and trades up where quality is visible, often on the same shopping trip,” said Lusk. “Store brands and lower-priced grocers have earned real credibility, but so has the premium product with better ingredients or a clear functional benefit, and ingredients have widened their lead over taste as the top reason shoppers pay more in grocery. Add GLP-1 users rebuilding their baskets around protein and nutrition because they are eating less, and a growing share of shoppers letting AI influence their purchases, mostly to compare price and value, and the message for brands and retailers is clear: value has to be demonstrable, on the shelf and on the screen. Familiarity alone will not close the sale.”
To view the full Consumer Sentiment Survey Fall 2026, please visit:
https://alvarezandmarsal-crg.com/insight/consumer-sentiment-survey-fall-2026/
About Alvarez & Marsal Consumer Retail Group
Alvarez and Marsal’s Consumer and Retail Group (A&M CRG) is a management consulting firm that tackles the most complex challenges and advances its clients, people, and communities toward their maximum potential. CRG combines the best of A&M’s broader firm’s bias toward action and practicality with deep consumer and retail industry experience. CRG partners with businesses across a wide range of categories including Food & Beverage, Beauty & Personal Care, Grocery, Mass Merchandise, and Apparel & Footwear to drive significant performance improvement.
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